Following the walkout of long time Utah Jazz coach Jerry Sloan this week, I decided to post an argument I've made with friends for the last few years about franchise point guards. Deron Williams has been reported as the major cause of Sloan's early retirement, and this fact has sparked debate over who is more important to the success of a franchise, a long time, relatively successful and respected taskmaster, or a point guard considered the key to long term success of said franchise. I have always maintained that a team does not need a franchise point guard to be successful. Recent history not only backs up this point, but makes a strong case that when a team calls its point guard its best player, that team has a greater chance of failure than success. This blog will examine the performance of franchise point guards over the last two decades in the NBA, proving my theory correct.
The simple fact of the matter is, no franchise in the last twenty NBA seasons has won a championship with its point guard being considered its best player. I will now go through a list of the starting point guards on championship teams from the last twenty years:
2009-10: Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers
2008-09: Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers
2007-08: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
2006-07: Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
2005-06: Jason Williams, Miami Heat
2004-05: Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
2003-04: Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons
2002-03: Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
2001-02: Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers
2000-01: Ron Harper, Los Angeles Lakers
1999-00: Ron Harper, Los Angeles Lakers
1998-99: Avery Johnson, San Antonio Spurs
1997-98: Ron Harper, Chicago Bulls
1996-97: Steve Kerr/Ron Harper, Chicago Bulls
1995-96: Steve Kerr, Chicago Bulls
1994-95: Kenny Smith, Houston Rockets
1993-94: Kenny Smith, Houston Rockets
1992-93: BJ Armstrong, Chicago Bulls
1991-92: John Paxson, Chicago Bulls
1990-91: John Paxson, Chicago Bulls
Now, stats don't mean everything in basketball, however they do tell a significant portion of the story. Over that twenty season span, the total averages for starting point guards were: 10.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 4 APG (information obtained from databaseBasketball.com). The current point guard that comes the closest to those averages? Denver Nuggets backup Ty Lawson, with averages of 10.7, 2.3 and 3.9. The current highest performing statistical point guard in the NBA based soley on points, rebounds and assists, Derrick Rose, more than doubles all of those numbers, averaging (according to Yahoo Sports) 24.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 8.2 APG. Statistically Deron Williams is second with 21.6, 3.7 and 9.6.
So, what does this all mean? Clearly, the best player on the last twenty NBA Championship teams has not been a point guard. Many could make a case for Tony Parker, due to his Finals MVP win in 2007, however sports writers, including Bill Simmons, maintain that Duncan should have won the award as he was more pivotal to the team's success. Chauncey Billups also won a Finals MVP, however that year he shot less than 40% from the field, and was second in PPG behind Rip Hamilton. Ben Wallace won Defensive Player of the Year, and Rasheed Wallace was at least considered as much of an offensive threat as Billups and Hamilton, so it was a clear team effort on the part of those four.
Looking at the teams that lost the finals in those years, names such as Stockton, Payton, Iverson, Magic and Kidd pop up as losing Finalists; transcendant point guards who took their teams to the Finals but fell at the final hurdle to teams with dominant big men, or shooting guards.
Which brings me to my next point: clearly, just as the last twenty years have exposed the myth that a franchise point guard is important, it has also reaffirmed the notion that a dominant big man, or transcendant swingman, or both, should be a franchise's number one priority when making the drive to a championship. Think of the dominant players to win multiple titles in the last twenty years: Jordan, Pippen, Duncan, O'Neal, Bryant, Olajuwon. All big men, or wing men. So, using that logic, one can understand why teams like the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks signed Amar'e Stoudemire and are excited by the prospect of gaining Carmelo Anthony in the next six months. This logic also looks favourable for the Miami Heaat, who while they have a rotation of second and third string point guards without a clear starter, have filled the most important positions historically to win a championship with acquisitions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh. This theory also spells bad news for the Hornets and Jazz, with franchise point guards being far and away better than the second best player on each team. Chicago Bulls fans can take refuge in the fact that their team currently, short of a decent two guard, is built in a very similar fashion to the Detroit Pistons team of 2004, with a scoring PG and PF, a handy SF in Luol deng (who has picked up his defense this year), and a defensive player of the year candidate when healthy in Joakim Noah. Using the Pistons championship team as a base, the Bulls only need a dependable shooting guard that can hit threes and defend to be a contender.
Now I'm not saying that this trend will continue, in fact, due to the large influx of dominant point guards weight of numbers suggests that the reverse will be the case. What I am saying is that franchises should think twice before mortgaging their future just to obtain, or keep, an A-Grade Point Guard. Franchises such as the Utah Jazz and the New Orleans Hornets. Chris Paul and Deron Williams are amazing players, and may one day lead their teams to championships, however by building around them, you are taking the road less travelled in recent times.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
NBA Opening Night: What I Learnt
NBA's opening night has come and gone. Like Christmas Eve, I struggled to get to sleep last night due to my excitement, and like Christmas Day, the first double header gave me everything I wanted plus more. I finished the double header with my basketball fill, but unlike Christmas Day, I get to do it all again tomorrow. So, what did we learn from opening night?
Depth is Important
All the focus preseason was on Miami's new Big Three of LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, which is fine, as it was the biggest news story of the year. In comparison with Boston's Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett (for this argument, let's assume Ray Allen is number four), or the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom (who has clearly taken over Andrew Bynum after a stellar showing for Team USA at the World Championships), Miami is a clear favourite. If this was a game played 3-on-3, Miami would be paying $1.10 for the title right now. But, it's not.
No, as the Lakers and Boston have proven over the last three years, championships are won and lost with the performance of role players. Last year, Sasha Vujacic knocked down clutch free throws to secure Game 7. Two years ago, Trevor Ariza earned himself a handy contract from Houston after his key performance in the Finals against Orlando. Even going back to the 2007-08 Finals, James Posey earned a similar sized contract on the back of the defense that took Boston to the Championship. Role Players are pivotal in the success of great teams.
So, let's apply that logic to what we witnessed opening night. In the minds of a lot of experts, there are three main contenders to this year's NBA Championship - Miami, Boston, and the Lakers. All were in action, and all gave us a good look at what we should expect this season. Now, let's compare the fourth best through ninth best players on each of the main contenders:
LA Lakers - Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest, Shannon Brown, Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, Matt Barnes
Boston - Ray Allen, Shaquile O'Neal, Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, Marquis Daniels, Jermaine O'Neal
Miami - Joel Anthony, Carlos Arroyo, Udonis Haslem, Eddie House, James Jones, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Quite a stark contrast between the first two and the last one. The Lakers and Boston have specialist perimeter defenders (Artest, Barnes, Daniels), lights out shooters (Allen, Fisher), instant bench offense to provide a spark (Brown, Robinson), and big, heavy defenders to wear down post players (Bynum, Shaq, Jermaine). Miami has a similar set up, albeit with a bunch of guys that on the whole are yet to prove themselves to be any of the above. Haslem was a decent defender on the Heat's Championship team of 2006, but ultimately was playing with either Shaq or Alonzo Mourning when he was on the court, so it wasn't really a difficult task. Arroyo has proven himself at international level but never in the NBA. House and Jones are spotty shooters who from time to time can get on a hot streak. As for Big Z and Joel Anthony, well I just went through every team in the NBA, and they'd probably get the start for only one team in the league - Charlotte, whose big man division includes Nazr Mohammed and DeSagana Diop.
So really, I didn't learn anything from opening night, however, the two games reaffirmed my original thoughts that Miami is going to have to see remarkable improvement from its supporting cast before it can be considered as good as Boston or Los Angeles. Even Orlando, with it's best three players being Howard, Lewis and Carter, and supporting cast of Nelson, Bass, Redick, Q-Richardson, Pietrus, and Gortat, has a better overall squad, and causes huge matchup problems for Miami, especially with Dwight Howard.
Marquis Daniels makes Boston better
With the departure of Tony Allen this past summer after Allen's impressive play in the Playoffs, basketball fans could be forgiven for thinking that Boston's depth in the wings would be getting a little worse. Quite the contrary, however, as Marquis Daniels' return from injury allowed Boston to actually get better defensively. After playing a key role in the Dallas team that won the West in 2006, Daniels got paid by my team, the Pacers, where he was given a greater role as a starter, averaging 13ppg in 2008-09. After that performance Daniels moved to Boston to pick up where James Posey left off in their last Championship team. After a year marred by injuries in 2009-10, Daniels is back at 100%, and provides Boston with a fantastic backup for aging stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, primarily Pierce due to Delonte West's inclusion in the Celtics' squad. Daniels is a more savvy scorer, and a better defender than Tony Allen, which explains why the Celtics didn't try harder to keep Trick or Treat Tony.
So, those were the two important lessons I learnt from opening night. Now, to something different.
Crazy Trade Machine Trade Of The Week
Laying in bed last night, I had an epiphany. I was thinking about Orlando and their chances at this years' Championship, all the while thinking that there was something missing from their squad. I remembered the notion that Orlando were looking at offering New Orleans Carter and Nelson for Chris Paul and filler, and wondered if there were any similar trades that had a similar result. Then, it came to me: Steve Nash. Nash is stuck on a Phoenix squad that took a dive from last year, losing it's entire power forward stocks, and backup shooting guard. The 2010-11 Suns debuted in a loss to the team they defeated in the first round of last seasons' playoffs - Portland. Nash had to carry more of the team's scoring load, taking 19 shots, six more than the next best Sun, Jason Richardson. With Hedo Turkoglu playing at power forward due to no other viable options, the Suns' frontcourt did not score well, with Turk, Warwick, Lopez, and Fry going a combined 8-21 for 24 points - Amare's usual output last season.
My prediction - the Suns get off to an awful start, something like 5-15 (plausible, Suns' next five games are @Utah, vs LA Lakers, vs Spurs, vs Memphis and @Atlanta - they could start 1-5), and Nash begins to get frustrated, but doesn't make a big deal of it as he's by all accounts one of the league's best teammates. No, Nash keeps quiet and keeps trying to win, albeit with little success. Orlando get off to a decent start, but don't set the world on fire. Orlando then offers Phoenix the following:
Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, and Ryan Anderson and a 2011 first rounder
for
Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Grant Hill
So, on Phoenix's side, they get Anderson, a 6-10 poor man's Troy Murphy in the making, a big guy with loads of potential that fits their system perfectly. They also get a new backcourt that can provide the same scoring output. Finally, they give Nash a chance at a ring to thank him for all the years of service. Now, NBA teams aren't really in the business of trading their players to better situations to thank them, but really, Phoenix are getting a fair trade here.
Orlando on the other hand get a leader the likes of which the franchise has never seen. An all-around good guy who makes everyone around him better. They also get a scorer who provides similar output to Carter at a lower price with an expiring deal, and the veteran savvy of Grant Hill, who can provide further depth at small forward, and help them in the playoffs.
With a starting lineup of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Grant Hill, Jason Richardson and Steve Nash, and a bench of Brandon Bass, JJ Redick, Quentin Richardson, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, not to mention backup point guards Chris Duhon and Jason Williams, Orlando probably end up on par with Boston, and have a team capable of beating the Lakers.
Friday, May 15, 2009
LeBron vs. Jordan - I'm just happy to be here.
I watched Game 4, Cleveland at Atlanta last week, and as I was watching, a huge smile broke out across my face. I promptly send Jarvo a text stating the obvious. I do this all the time, but as with most of those times, I felt it had to be stated in black and white so I, and he, could reflect on the statement. I said:
"LeBron James is unguardable... and it's beautiful."
By the way, I’m adding “unguardable” to my dictionary, and advising that it can only be used when speaking about one of the two individuals that will grace this blog. Seriously, I know Derrick Rose is good, but “as soon as he develops a jump shot, he’ll be unguardable”? Come on. It’s like a scale. In fact, screw it; I’m going to make an “Unguardable Scale”. The rules would be simple:
- Players must be current. Who the hell am I to say if Bill Russell could guard Tim Duncan? Well, today he’d probably have a chance, as Timmy’s knees are more banged up than my dad’s – and my dad only has one of his original knees left.
- We count backwards from 100 (or however many I get done) to 1, with 99 being capable of guarding 100, and so on. This excludes purely offensive players. If a player is “unguardable”, then he’s not able to be stopped. I believe that should count for either end of the floor. Thus, Michael Redd would not make the list.
- Someone remind me to put this list together. In terms of anticipation, it’s somewhere between “World’s 100 Most Powerful People” and “Cronulla Players That Went to NZ in 2002”. Too soon? You all want this list. I’ll make it shortly.
Anyway, back to LeBron being unguardable. Teams are forced to double him constantly. Opposing coaches shiver when he has the ball in his hands. You can almost guarantee something good will happen when he has “The Rock”.
He’s quick enough to play Point Forward consistently, big and strong enough to play the four, savvy enough to guard the other team's best player, and intelligent enough to get to the hole when he needs to. We haven't ever - EVER - seen a player like this... and it's beautiful. It's a joy to watch this guy mature, hone different parts of his game, and slowly, but surely, become unguardable. He's starts off as a kid with more natural ability than just about anyone ever, and with the athleticism to back it up. He uses his athleticism to bully himself, to will himself, to get points. Shaky jumper? He works on it in the off-season, and now it's steady instead. No killer instinct? He wins a gold medal and shares that honour with men he admires and respects. He learns that to really win, you need that fire in your eyes, not just in the fourth quarter of a playoff game against Detroit, but every single night. You need to almost be a bully. You don’t need to become a bully like Kobe Bryant, a man who feels like he has to prove something to the world, and takes that fact out on his opponents to the point that you don’t like him at all – but you need to almost be a bully. You need to light up the Wolves on the road. To beat up on the Thunder in front of your home crowd. To score 108 points in the first 108 minutes you play in the Hawks series. LeBron has that fire every SINGLE night. It's scary. For the next five, six seasons, 29 other teams will be playing catch up to Cleveland, or whatever team he goes to in 2010 (which I think is still Cleveland).
Onto the flip side. LeBron has a very, very good team around him. Danny Ferry and Mike Brown have built up a team that’s perfect for LeBron James. A veteran centre who can pull down boards and shoot a nice little fifteen footer, making him a viable threat away from the basket, and giving LeBron an avenue, a crack in the defence, to drive through. A point guard who routinely made buzzer beaters at his last team, and has been begging for an opportunity he could never quite get, as he was playing behind TJ Ford first, and Ramon Sessions second (both of which, and this applies to TJ especially, are nowhere near Mo Williams’ level). Two combo guards who are reliable three point shooters, one of those who LeBron calls a better perimeter defender than he is. As for the four, they have one energy guy who’s playing like a poor man’s Chris Andersen (which is a compliment, even though the previous statement could never be called as such before May 2009); one veteran who can keep his composure and make shots when needed – just not too many; and the X Factor of the team, a former multiple time defensive player of the year who was overpaid by a thought-to-be contending team and is now six months away from actually decomposing at the end of a championship team’s bench. If Sasha Pavolvic and Wally’s World magically turned into Courtney Lee and Raja Bell, then this team would win every game by 25 points, not just every second game.
Point being, LeBron has the help that he originally desired. Sure, the help could be better, and the supporting cast more star-studded, but to quote The Rock, every player listed, with the exception of the last two (who suck – especially Sasha) knows their role, and shuts their mouth. If Fan Footy tracked the progress of Cavs games in the East Finals, every player bar James, West and Pavolvic would get a “cog” symbol (for those wondering, James would have a “crown” symbol, Williams would get the “hot sun” one, West would have a tag, and Pavolvic would be, of course, a spud). Actually, there’s another idea – fan footy graphics for players of other sports. I’ll make that happen later also.
Now, I look the initial statement, and with everything that I said above, it'd be easy to agree with it. Actually, it'd be too easy to agree with it. This is why I’m going to make the easiest point in the most long winded way possible. Michael Jordan started something that LeBron James is now continuing. Michael Jordan had kids from all corners of the earth… GROWN MEN from all corners of the earth... every sports fan from all corners of the earth... idolising him… and dreaming of being that good. If you were a 5-10 year old kid who just discovered basketball in the early-to-mid nineties, you were by default a Bulls fan. Jordan was worshipped by all. He did things athletically, statistically, physically, that no one had done before. He was so good that people will still be trying to find, and buying, his jersey in 100 years. You'll have men telling their kids about Michael Jordan stories their grandfathers told them.
Jordan reached a level that no athlete before him had gone close to - his name became synonymous with the name of the sport itself. If you ask a Regular Joe what they know about basketball, they're 80-90% sure to mention Michael Jordan in their answer. Only Tiger and Gretzky got to that level with their prospective sports, and of current athletes, only Usain Bolt has the opportunity to reach that place. Phelps couldn’t do it – sure, eight gold medals is the best by anyone ever, but people will still remember Ian Thorpe, Aleksander Popov, Grant Hackett, Inge de Bruin, and a few others. If Gary Ablett Jr. averaged 40 possessions per game for an ENTIRE SEASON he STILL wouldn’t be close to that level. There is, and will probably never be a consensus “Greatest Australian Rules Football Player Ever”, so how can someone reach That Level? Who’s name do you think of when I type boxing? I’d probably get a different answer from most of the people reading this, and most of the people in the street. Most would say Ali, sure, but some would say Tyson, Foreman, Holyfield, Lewis, Mayweather, De La Hoya, and other names would pop up. Mixed Martial Arts? Liddell had the chance, he really did. Beating Randy twice, beating Tito once when he was near the top of his game and once when he was washed up, beating Babalu in devastating fashion. He was on the rise, and then he ran out of people to fight for a while. Wanderlei wasn’t bought in until after he lost the belt. If Liddell had knocked out Silva, and then Jackson, he’s approach that level. Even the great Sir Donald Bradman couldn’t reach that level – three players came along and meant that all over the world people knew four greats of cricket: Bradman, Lara, Tendulkar, and Warne. The closest guy to Tiger, Gretzky and Jordan was Michael Schumacher. He might be at that level, it’s too hard to tell. What do you think?
So Jordan is on another level to anyone else that plays basketball. But we already knew that. The question that basketball fans will be asking themselves for perhaps the next 20 years is: will LeBron surpass him? I say no. LeBron might win six titles like Jordan. Might win six MVPs like Jordan. Might win a Defensive Player of the Year like Jordan. But it'll take something extra - it'll take LeBron BEATING Jordan at something - for LeBron to get to that level. Even then though, he'll only be an equal, because without Michael Jordan, there is no LeBron James. You can't just jump over a bar, someone had to set it there in the first place.
Thing is, the mere fact that there’s a player out there that could do that – could actually MATCH Jordan, is enough reason to throw the debate out and just watch. Incredibly excited, and proud, and thankful that I was young enough to hold Jordan in almost god-like esteem, and old enough to understand that what LeBron James is currently doing is a once in a lifetime achievement. Think about it, when my kids are young and Tiger is hanging up his putter, or Bolt has broken 9.6, or 9.5, and another guy comes along who can MATCH one of those guys, my kids will sit in awe, and enjoy. Me? I’ll probably be writing another column saying exactly the same thing, with exactly the same smile on my face.T
"LeBron James is unguardable... and it's beautiful."
By the way, I’m adding “unguardable” to my dictionary, and advising that it can only be used when speaking about one of the two individuals that will grace this blog. Seriously, I know Derrick Rose is good, but “as soon as he develops a jump shot, he’ll be unguardable”? Come on. It’s like a scale. In fact, screw it; I’m going to make an “Unguardable Scale”. The rules would be simple:
- Players must be current. Who the hell am I to say if Bill Russell could guard Tim Duncan? Well, today he’d probably have a chance, as Timmy’s knees are more banged up than my dad’s – and my dad only has one of his original knees left.
- We count backwards from 100 (or however many I get done) to 1, with 99 being capable of guarding 100, and so on. This excludes purely offensive players. If a player is “unguardable”, then he’s not able to be stopped. I believe that should count for either end of the floor. Thus, Michael Redd would not make the list.
- Someone remind me to put this list together. In terms of anticipation, it’s somewhere between “World’s 100 Most Powerful People” and “Cronulla Players That Went to NZ in 2002”. Too soon? You all want this list. I’ll make it shortly.
Anyway, back to LeBron being unguardable. Teams are forced to double him constantly. Opposing coaches shiver when he has the ball in his hands. You can almost guarantee something good will happen when he has “The Rock”.
He’s quick enough to play Point Forward consistently, big and strong enough to play the four, savvy enough to guard the other team's best player, and intelligent enough to get to the hole when he needs to. We haven't ever - EVER - seen a player like this... and it's beautiful. It's a joy to watch this guy mature, hone different parts of his game, and slowly, but surely, become unguardable. He's starts off as a kid with more natural ability than just about anyone ever, and with the athleticism to back it up. He uses his athleticism to bully himself, to will himself, to get points. Shaky jumper? He works on it in the off-season, and now it's steady instead. No killer instinct? He wins a gold medal and shares that honour with men he admires and respects. He learns that to really win, you need that fire in your eyes, not just in the fourth quarter of a playoff game against Detroit, but every single night. You need to almost be a bully. You don’t need to become a bully like Kobe Bryant, a man who feels like he has to prove something to the world, and takes that fact out on his opponents to the point that you don’t like him at all – but you need to almost be a bully. You need to light up the Wolves on the road. To beat up on the Thunder in front of your home crowd. To score 108 points in the first 108 minutes you play in the Hawks series. LeBron has that fire every SINGLE night. It's scary. For the next five, six seasons, 29 other teams will be playing catch up to Cleveland, or whatever team he goes to in 2010 (which I think is still Cleveland).
Onto the flip side. LeBron has a very, very good team around him. Danny Ferry and Mike Brown have built up a team that’s perfect for LeBron James. A veteran centre who can pull down boards and shoot a nice little fifteen footer, making him a viable threat away from the basket, and giving LeBron an avenue, a crack in the defence, to drive through. A point guard who routinely made buzzer beaters at his last team, and has been begging for an opportunity he could never quite get, as he was playing behind TJ Ford first, and Ramon Sessions second (both of which, and this applies to TJ especially, are nowhere near Mo Williams’ level). Two combo guards who are reliable three point shooters, one of those who LeBron calls a better perimeter defender than he is. As for the four, they have one energy guy who’s playing like a poor man’s Chris Andersen (which is a compliment, even though the previous statement could never be called as such before May 2009); one veteran who can keep his composure and make shots when needed – just not too many; and the X Factor of the team, a former multiple time defensive player of the year who was overpaid by a thought-to-be contending team and is now six months away from actually decomposing at the end of a championship team’s bench. If Sasha Pavolvic and Wally’s World magically turned into Courtney Lee and Raja Bell, then this team would win every game by 25 points, not just every second game.
Point being, LeBron has the help that he originally desired. Sure, the help could be better, and the supporting cast more star-studded, but to quote The Rock, every player listed, with the exception of the last two (who suck – especially Sasha) knows their role, and shuts their mouth. If Fan Footy tracked the progress of Cavs games in the East Finals, every player bar James, West and Pavolvic would get a “cog” symbol (for those wondering, James would have a “crown” symbol, Williams would get the “hot sun” one, West would have a tag, and Pavolvic would be, of course, a spud). Actually, there’s another idea – fan footy graphics for players of other sports. I’ll make that happen later also.
Now, I look the initial statement, and with everything that I said above, it'd be easy to agree with it. Actually, it'd be too easy to agree with it. This is why I’m going to make the easiest point in the most long winded way possible. Michael Jordan started something that LeBron James is now continuing. Michael Jordan had kids from all corners of the earth… GROWN MEN from all corners of the earth... every sports fan from all corners of the earth... idolising him… and dreaming of being that good. If you were a 5-10 year old kid who just discovered basketball in the early-to-mid nineties, you were by default a Bulls fan. Jordan was worshipped by all. He did things athletically, statistically, physically, that no one had done before. He was so good that people will still be trying to find, and buying, his jersey in 100 years. You'll have men telling their kids about Michael Jordan stories their grandfathers told them.
Jordan reached a level that no athlete before him had gone close to - his name became synonymous with the name of the sport itself. If you ask a Regular Joe what they know about basketball, they're 80-90% sure to mention Michael Jordan in their answer. Only Tiger and Gretzky got to that level with their prospective sports, and of current athletes, only Usain Bolt has the opportunity to reach that place. Phelps couldn’t do it – sure, eight gold medals is the best by anyone ever, but people will still remember Ian Thorpe, Aleksander Popov, Grant Hackett, Inge de Bruin, and a few others. If Gary Ablett Jr. averaged 40 possessions per game for an ENTIRE SEASON he STILL wouldn’t be close to that level. There is, and will probably never be a consensus “Greatest Australian Rules Football Player Ever”, so how can someone reach That Level? Who’s name do you think of when I type boxing? I’d probably get a different answer from most of the people reading this, and most of the people in the street. Most would say Ali, sure, but some would say Tyson, Foreman, Holyfield, Lewis, Mayweather, De La Hoya, and other names would pop up. Mixed Martial Arts? Liddell had the chance, he really did. Beating Randy twice, beating Tito once when he was near the top of his game and once when he was washed up, beating Babalu in devastating fashion. He was on the rise, and then he ran out of people to fight for a while. Wanderlei wasn’t bought in until after he lost the belt. If Liddell had knocked out Silva, and then Jackson, he’s approach that level. Even the great Sir Donald Bradman couldn’t reach that level – three players came along and meant that all over the world people knew four greats of cricket: Bradman, Lara, Tendulkar, and Warne. The closest guy to Tiger, Gretzky and Jordan was Michael Schumacher. He might be at that level, it’s too hard to tell. What do you think?
So Jordan is on another level to anyone else that plays basketball. But we already knew that. The question that basketball fans will be asking themselves for perhaps the next 20 years is: will LeBron surpass him? I say no. LeBron might win six titles like Jordan. Might win six MVPs like Jordan. Might win a Defensive Player of the Year like Jordan. But it'll take something extra - it'll take LeBron BEATING Jordan at something - for LeBron to get to that level. Even then though, he'll only be an equal, because without Michael Jordan, there is no LeBron James. You can't just jump over a bar, someone had to set it there in the first place.
Thing is, the mere fact that there’s a player out there that could do that – could actually MATCH Jordan, is enough reason to throw the debate out and just watch. Incredibly excited, and proud, and thankful that I was young enough to hold Jordan in almost god-like esteem, and old enough to understand that what LeBron James is currently doing is a once in a lifetime achievement. Think about it, when my kids are young and Tiger is hanging up his putter, or Bolt has broken 9.6, or 9.5, and another guy comes along who can MATCH one of those guys, my kids will sit in awe, and enjoy. Me? I’ll probably be writing another column saying exactly the same thing, with exactly the same smile on my face.T
Monday, March 2, 2009
The Next Great Fantasy Debate
For my debut on Ankles of Steel, I thought I'd write about something I was only just comparing on Fantasy.
(Note: I didn't realise I'd go into this much of a tangent before getting to my f**king column, but bear with me)
Now, I've got a team currently built around Chris Paul, arguably the best fantasy basketballer on the planet. I'm fairly happy with that, as with Paul and Marcus Camby as my best players, I can focus on winning five cats that almost no one focuses on together: FG%, REB, AST, BLK and TO. It's a weird combo, not to mention almost impossible to win a fantasy comp WITHOUT points, but it's a good experiment.
To be honest, I completely fucked up my initial draft. I had traded for Rashard Lewis and kept Carlos Boozer, meaning that I was contradicting myself by having a Power Forward who doesn't rebound but shoots more threes than anyone; and a Power Forward who flat out doesn't block, but has more steals than any other. One of these guys in your team would be fine, but two? With 2nd and 3rd rounders? I'd screwed up. So, I traded Lewis and OJ Mayo for Jamison and Kidd (suicide for keeper leagues, I know, but I'm making a run) and Boozer for Camby, and with a bit of luck (the emergence of Brook Lopez, Wilson Chandler and Mario Chalmers as solid fantasy contributors), I began to climb to the top. If Luol Deng was playing for a better coach, and Thaddeus Young realised his potential, I'd be sitting pretty right now.
But something still doesn't seem right. This whole "winning without winning PTS" thing is bothering me. How can I possibly win the league without winning points? Well, if I can't do it this year, I've decided that it's impossible.
Which brings me to my initial idea for the first column, an idea I had earlier in the year when I was sitting in about third spot: do I trade Chris Paul, and if so, who do I trade him for?
Crazy, I know, but it got me thinking. Firstly, the only players I would have traded Paul for in December were LeBron and D-Wade. Fair, right? I thought so. My Pacers byass also considered a package for Danny Granger (based on the fact that he's worth a 7th rounder in our keeper league) and Jose Calderon, but I decided against it.
Now? I'm thinking about blowing my team up at the end of the year if I'm able to win it all. Who would I trade Paul for? At the moment, there are two guys. Wanna take a guess?
Okay, that's enough guessing time. The two players?
LeBron James, and Kevin Durant.
Now half the people reading this column would be thinking "yeah, that's fair", and the other half would have either called an ambulance for me, or clicked to another page. The fact is, statistically, Kevin Durant is as valuable, if not more so, than LeBron James was at the same stage in their careers.
Let's compare their rookie seasons first. For the purpose of this arguement, I'll only use the nine fantasy cats.
LeBron James (2003-4):
41.7% FG
75.4% FT
0.8 3PM
20.9 PPG
5.5 RPG
5.9 APG
1.7 STL
0.7 BLK
3.5 TO
Kevin Durant (2007-8):
43.0% FG
87.3% FT
0.7 3PM
20.3 PPG
4.4 RPG
2.4 APG
1.0 STL
0.9 BLK
2.9 TO
In a Fantasy 1-on-1, LeBron wins 5-4.
Now, their second seasons.
LeBron James (2004-5) - 7.3% increase in playing time
47.2% FG (increase of 13% of previous years result)
75.0% FT (decrease of 0.5%)
1.4 3PM (75% increase)
27.2 PPG (30% increase)
7.4 RPG (35% increase)
7.2 APG (22% increase)
2.2 STL (29% increase)
0.7 BLK (same)
3.3 TO (6% decrease)
Kevin Durant (so far 2008-9) - 14% increase playing time
48.7% FG (13% increase)
86.2% FT (9% decrease)
1.4 3PM (100% increase)
26.0 PPG (28% increase)
6.6 RPG (50% increase)
2.9 APG (21% increase)
1.3 STL (30% increase)
0.8 BLK (20% decrease)
3.2 TO (13% increase)
This time, it's 4-4, with Three Pointers being the tying run. Also notice how similar the increase percentages are - it's almost identical on a couple of the categories, with similar increases in others. I'll then make you aware that Kevin Durant was playing 7% (or 2 minutes, 52 seconds) less than LeBron per game. When you average them per 48 minutes (like coaches tend to do these days), then Durant is leading LeBron in points by 0.8, and in 3PM by 0.116. Therefore, per 48 minutes, Durant is currently leading LeBron in fantasy terms 6 categories to 3. If you want to compare age, right now, Kevin Durant is 20 years, 155 days old. On the same day of the season in 2005, LeBron James was 20 years, 63 days. 92 days separates them, an insignificant amount in reality.
The year after the above statistics, LeBron averaged the following, with similar playing time:
48.0% FG (1.6% in)
73.8% FT (1.6% de)
1.6 3PM (14% in)
31.4 PPG (15% in)
7.0 RPG (5.7% de)
6.6 APG (9.1% de)
1.6 STL (38% de)
0.8 BLK (14% in)
3.3 TO (same)
Now, some of those averages went down, for a couple of reasons:
- LeBron had more of the scoring load due to injuries to Larry Hughes, and the presence of tiprats like Ronald Murray (before he was a decent role player) and Damon Jones.
- The pressure of running a team at 21 that was projected to make the playoffs, and
-a lack of trust in his teammates to score that resulted in him playing more like Michael and less like Magic.
Now, with Kevin Durant around a younger, argulably just as (if not more) talented Thunder outfit, it's looking increasingly likely that he'll not only improve a lot more next season, but that he could challenge LeBron, Kobe and Wade for the scoring title next season? At the moment, if Durant was to play as many minutes, and improve just as much in scoring as LeBron, he'd be averaging 32.1 PPG next season. That's good enough for the scoring title this season... by 3 PPG. So, not only should Kevin Durant maintain his lead over LeBron in FG%, FT%, Blocks and Turnovers, but he should pass LeBron in scoring.
It's also fair to assume that KD's rebounding averages won't drop 5.7% as LeBron's have. Durant has sustained a 50% increase in rebounding this year, and it's hard to see him not posting a similar average next year, as he will see significant playing time at the 3 and perhaps the 4 with the introduction of Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard. In fact, half the increase in rebounding that KD has had this season would result in 8.2 RPG in 2009-10. That average would put him 0.1 RPG below Dirk Nowitski and 0.6 RPG above LeBron James. Yep, that makes the battle 6-2, with 3PM tied.
Oh, and while I'm here, the last player to average 32 PPG and 8 RPG? I had to go back to the GOAT in 1988-89 when he averaged his amazing 32.5 PPG, 8 RPG and 8 APG. Before that? Bob McAdoo in 1975 with 34.5 and 14.1. McAdoo came close again three seasons later, and Moses Malone averaged 31 and 14 in 1981.
LeBron jumped up 14% in his third season in 3PM. Kevin Durant's has doubled, and since the All Star break, he's averaged 1.8 3PM, a huge improvement over last year, but still not near LeBron's 2.3 3PM since the break. If both players sustain this over the next season, KD will still be leading 6-3, but with LeBron dwarfing KD in the cat's that he would lead (steals, 3PM, and the biggest discrepancy, assists).
Now, it would appear in this blog that I'm trying to discredit LeBron. That's not true. I think LeBron has the potential to average a triple double in an entire season, and therefore become the greatest fantasy, and reality, player ever. Thing is, there's a guy that's coming along and may in the coming years also do something that few have done.
So, which player would you choose to base a fantasy team around? Comments are welcome.
(Note: I didn't realise I'd go into this much of a tangent before getting to my f**king column, but bear with me)
Now, I've got a team currently built around Chris Paul, arguably the best fantasy basketballer on the planet. I'm fairly happy with that, as with Paul and Marcus Camby as my best players, I can focus on winning five cats that almost no one focuses on together: FG%, REB, AST, BLK and TO. It's a weird combo, not to mention almost impossible to win a fantasy comp WITHOUT points, but it's a good experiment.
To be honest, I completely fucked up my initial draft. I had traded for Rashard Lewis and kept Carlos Boozer, meaning that I was contradicting myself by having a Power Forward who doesn't rebound but shoots more threes than anyone; and a Power Forward who flat out doesn't block, but has more steals than any other. One of these guys in your team would be fine, but two? With 2nd and 3rd rounders? I'd screwed up. So, I traded Lewis and OJ Mayo for Jamison and Kidd (suicide for keeper leagues, I know, but I'm making a run) and Boozer for Camby, and with a bit of luck (the emergence of Brook Lopez, Wilson Chandler and Mario Chalmers as solid fantasy contributors), I began to climb to the top. If Luol Deng was playing for a better coach, and Thaddeus Young realised his potential, I'd be sitting pretty right now.
But something still doesn't seem right. This whole "winning without winning PTS" thing is bothering me. How can I possibly win the league without winning points? Well, if I can't do it this year, I've decided that it's impossible.
Which brings me to my initial idea for the first column, an idea I had earlier in the year when I was sitting in about third spot: do I trade Chris Paul, and if so, who do I trade him for?
Crazy, I know, but it got me thinking. Firstly, the only players I would have traded Paul for in December were LeBron and D-Wade. Fair, right? I thought so. My Pacers byass also considered a package for Danny Granger (based on the fact that he's worth a 7th rounder in our keeper league) and Jose Calderon, but I decided against it.
Now? I'm thinking about blowing my team up at the end of the year if I'm able to win it all. Who would I trade Paul for? At the moment, there are two guys. Wanna take a guess?
Okay, that's enough guessing time. The two players?
LeBron James, and Kevin Durant.
Now half the people reading this column would be thinking "yeah, that's fair", and the other half would have either called an ambulance for me, or clicked to another page. The fact is, statistically, Kevin Durant is as valuable, if not more so, than LeBron James was at the same stage in their careers.
Let's compare their rookie seasons first. For the purpose of this arguement, I'll only use the nine fantasy cats.
LeBron James (2003-4):
41.7% FG
75.4% FT
0.8 3PM
20.9 PPG
5.5 RPG
5.9 APG
1.7 STL
0.7 BLK
3.5 TO
Kevin Durant (2007-8):
43.0% FG
87.3% FT
0.7 3PM
20.3 PPG
4.4 RPG
2.4 APG
1.0 STL
0.9 BLK
2.9 TO
In a Fantasy 1-on-1, LeBron wins 5-4.
Now, their second seasons.
LeBron James (2004-5) - 7.3% increase in playing time
47.2% FG (increase of 13% of previous years result)
75.0% FT (decrease of 0.5%)
1.4 3PM (75% increase)
27.2 PPG (30% increase)
7.4 RPG (35% increase)
7.2 APG (22% increase)
2.2 STL (29% increase)
0.7 BLK (same)
3.3 TO (6% decrease)
Kevin Durant (so far 2008-9) - 14% increase playing time
48.7% FG (13% increase)
86.2% FT (9% decrease)
1.4 3PM (100% increase)
26.0 PPG (28% increase)
6.6 RPG (50% increase)
2.9 APG (21% increase)
1.3 STL (30% increase)
0.8 BLK (20% decrease)
3.2 TO (13% increase)
This time, it's 4-4, with Three Pointers being the tying run. Also notice how similar the increase percentages are - it's almost identical on a couple of the categories, with similar increases in others. I'll then make you aware that Kevin Durant was playing 7% (or 2 minutes, 52 seconds) less than LeBron per game. When you average them per 48 minutes (like coaches tend to do these days), then Durant is leading LeBron in points by 0.8, and in 3PM by 0.116. Therefore, per 48 minutes, Durant is currently leading LeBron in fantasy terms 6 categories to 3. If you want to compare age, right now, Kevin Durant is 20 years, 155 days old. On the same day of the season in 2005, LeBron James was 20 years, 63 days. 92 days separates them, an insignificant amount in reality.
The year after the above statistics, LeBron averaged the following, with similar playing time:
48.0% FG (1.6% in)
73.8% FT (1.6% de)
1.6 3PM (14% in)
31.4 PPG (15% in)
7.0 RPG (5.7% de)
6.6 APG (9.1% de)
1.6 STL (38% de)
0.8 BLK (14% in)
3.3 TO (same)
Now, some of those averages went down, for a couple of reasons:
- LeBron had more of the scoring load due to injuries to Larry Hughes, and the presence of tiprats like Ronald Murray (before he was a decent role player) and Damon Jones.
- The pressure of running a team at 21 that was projected to make the playoffs, and
-a lack of trust in his teammates to score that resulted in him playing more like Michael and less like Magic.
Now, with Kevin Durant around a younger, argulably just as (if not more) talented Thunder outfit, it's looking increasingly likely that he'll not only improve a lot more next season, but that he could challenge LeBron, Kobe and Wade for the scoring title next season? At the moment, if Durant was to play as many minutes, and improve just as much in scoring as LeBron, he'd be averaging 32.1 PPG next season. That's good enough for the scoring title this season... by 3 PPG. So, not only should Kevin Durant maintain his lead over LeBron in FG%, FT%, Blocks and Turnovers, but he should pass LeBron in scoring.
It's also fair to assume that KD's rebounding averages won't drop 5.7% as LeBron's have. Durant has sustained a 50% increase in rebounding this year, and it's hard to see him not posting a similar average next year, as he will see significant playing time at the 3 and perhaps the 4 with the introduction of Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard. In fact, half the increase in rebounding that KD has had this season would result in 8.2 RPG in 2009-10. That average would put him 0.1 RPG below Dirk Nowitski and 0.6 RPG above LeBron James. Yep, that makes the battle 6-2, with 3PM tied.
Oh, and while I'm here, the last player to average 32 PPG and 8 RPG? I had to go back to the GOAT in 1988-89 when he averaged his amazing 32.5 PPG, 8 RPG and 8 APG. Before that? Bob McAdoo in 1975 with 34.5 and 14.1. McAdoo came close again three seasons later, and Moses Malone averaged 31 and 14 in 1981.
LeBron jumped up 14% in his third season in 3PM. Kevin Durant's has doubled, and since the All Star break, he's averaged 1.8 3PM, a huge improvement over last year, but still not near LeBron's 2.3 3PM since the break. If both players sustain this over the next season, KD will still be leading 6-3, but with LeBron dwarfing KD in the cat's that he would lead (steals, 3PM, and the biggest discrepancy, assists).
Now, it would appear in this blog that I'm trying to discredit LeBron. That's not true. I think LeBron has the potential to average a triple double in an entire season, and therefore become the greatest fantasy, and reality, player ever. Thing is, there's a guy that's coming along and may in the coming years also do something that few have done.
So, which player would you choose to base a fantasy team around? Comments are welcome.
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