Depth is Important
All the focus preseason was on Miami's new Big Three of LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, which is fine, as it was the biggest news story of the year. In comparison with Boston's Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett (for this argument, let's assume Ray Allen is number four), or the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom (who has clearly taken over Andrew Bynum after a stellar showing for Team USA at the World Championships), Miami is a clear favourite. If this was a game played 3-on-3, Miami would be paying $1.10 for the title right now. But, it's not.
No, as the Lakers and Boston have proven over the last three years, championships are won and lost with the performance of role players. Last year, Sasha Vujacic knocked down clutch free throws to secure Game 7. Two years ago, Trevor Ariza earned himself a handy contract from Houston after his key performance in the Finals against Orlando. Even going back to the 2007-08 Finals, James Posey earned a similar sized contract on the back of the defense that took Boston to the Championship. Role Players are pivotal in the success of great teams.
So, let's apply that logic to what we witnessed opening night. In the minds of a lot of experts, there are three main contenders to this year's NBA Championship - Miami, Boston, and the Lakers. All were in action, and all gave us a good look at what we should expect this season. Now, let's compare the fourth best through ninth best players on each of the main contenders:
LA Lakers - Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest, Shannon Brown, Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, Matt Barnes
Boston - Ray Allen, Shaquile O'Neal, Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, Marquis Daniels, Jermaine O'Neal
Miami - Joel Anthony, Carlos Arroyo, Udonis Haslem, Eddie House, James Jones, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Quite a stark contrast between the first two and the last one. The Lakers and Boston have specialist perimeter defenders (Artest, Barnes, Daniels), lights out shooters (Allen, Fisher), instant bench offense to provide a spark (Brown, Robinson), and big, heavy defenders to wear down post players (Bynum, Shaq, Jermaine). Miami has a similar set up, albeit with a bunch of guys that on the whole are yet to prove themselves to be any of the above. Haslem was a decent defender on the Heat's Championship team of 2006, but ultimately was playing with either Shaq or Alonzo Mourning when he was on the court, so it wasn't really a difficult task. Arroyo has proven himself at international level but never in the NBA. House and Jones are spotty shooters who from time to time can get on a hot streak. As for Big Z and Joel Anthony, well I just went through every team in the NBA, and they'd probably get the start for only one team in the league - Charlotte, whose big man division includes Nazr Mohammed and DeSagana Diop.
So really, I didn't learn anything from opening night, however, the two games reaffirmed my original thoughts that Miami is going to have to see remarkable improvement from its supporting cast before it can be considered as good as Boston or Los Angeles. Even Orlando, with it's best three players being Howard, Lewis and Carter, and supporting cast of Nelson, Bass, Redick, Q-Richardson, Pietrus, and Gortat, has a better overall squad, and causes huge matchup problems for Miami, especially with Dwight Howard.
Marquis Daniels makes Boston better
With the departure of Tony Allen this past summer after Allen's impressive play in the Playoffs, basketball fans could be forgiven for thinking that Boston's depth in the wings would be getting a little worse. Quite the contrary, however, as Marquis Daniels' return from injury allowed Boston to actually get better defensively. After playing a key role in the Dallas team that won the West in 2006, Daniels got paid by my team, the Pacers, where he was given a greater role as a starter, averaging 13ppg in 2008-09. After that performance Daniels moved to Boston to pick up where James Posey left off in their last Championship team. After a year marred by injuries in 2009-10, Daniels is back at 100%, and provides Boston with a fantastic backup for aging stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, primarily Pierce due to Delonte West's inclusion in the Celtics' squad. Daniels is a more savvy scorer, and a better defender than Tony Allen, which explains why the Celtics didn't try harder to keep Trick or Treat Tony.
So, those were the two important lessons I learnt from opening night. Now, to something different.
Crazy Trade Machine Trade Of The Week
Laying in bed last night, I had an epiphany. I was thinking about Orlando and their chances at this years' Championship, all the while thinking that there was something missing from their squad. I remembered the notion that Orlando were looking at offering New Orleans Carter and Nelson for Chris Paul and filler, and wondered if there were any similar trades that had a similar result. Then, it came to me: Steve Nash. Nash is stuck on a Phoenix squad that took a dive from last year, losing it's entire power forward stocks, and backup shooting guard. The 2010-11 Suns debuted in a loss to the team they defeated in the first round of last seasons' playoffs - Portland. Nash had to carry more of the team's scoring load, taking 19 shots, six more than the next best Sun, Jason Richardson. With Hedo Turkoglu playing at power forward due to no other viable options, the Suns' frontcourt did not score well, with Turk, Warwick, Lopez, and Fry going a combined 8-21 for 24 points - Amare's usual output last season.
My prediction - the Suns get off to an awful start, something like 5-15 (plausible, Suns' next five games are @Utah, vs LA Lakers, vs Spurs, vs Memphis and @Atlanta - they could start 1-5), and Nash begins to get frustrated, but doesn't make a big deal of it as he's by all accounts one of the league's best teammates. No, Nash keeps quiet and keeps trying to win, albeit with little success. Orlando get off to a decent start, but don't set the world on fire. Orlando then offers Phoenix the following:
Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, and Ryan Anderson and a 2011 first rounder
for
Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Grant Hill
So, on Phoenix's side, they get Anderson, a 6-10 poor man's Troy Murphy in the making, a big guy with loads of potential that fits their system perfectly. They also get a new backcourt that can provide the same scoring output. Finally, they give Nash a chance at a ring to thank him for all the years of service. Now, NBA teams aren't really in the business of trading their players to better situations to thank them, but really, Phoenix are getting a fair trade here.
Orlando on the other hand get a leader the likes of which the franchise has never seen. An all-around good guy who makes everyone around him better. They also get a scorer who provides similar output to Carter at a lower price with an expiring deal, and the veteran savvy of Grant Hill, who can provide further depth at small forward, and help them in the playoffs.
With a starting lineup of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Grant Hill, Jason Richardson and Steve Nash, and a bench of Brandon Bass, JJ Redick, Quentin Richardson, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, not to mention backup point guards Chris Duhon and Jason Williams, Orlando probably end up on par with Boston, and have a team capable of beating the Lakers.
