The Next Great Fantasy Debate

For my debut on Ankles of Steel, I thought I'd write about something I was only just comparing on Fantasy.

(Note: I didn't realise I'd go into this much of a tangent before getting to my f**king column, but bear with me)

Now, I've got a team currently built around Chris Paul, arguably the best fantasy basketballer on the planet. I'm fairly happy with that, as with Paul and Marcus Camby as my best players, I can focus on winning five cats that almost no one focuses on together: FG%, REB, AST, BLK and TO. It's a weird combo, not to mention almost impossible to win a fantasy comp WITHOUT points, but it's a good experiment.

To be honest, I completely fucked up my initial draft. I had traded for Rashard Lewis and kept Carlos Boozer, meaning that I was contradicting myself by having a Power Forward who doesn't rebound but shoots more threes than anyone; and a Power Forward who flat out doesn't block, but has more steals than any other. One of these guys in your team would be fine, but two? With 2nd and 3rd rounders? I'd screwed up. So, I traded Lewis and OJ Mayo for Jamison and Kidd (suicide for keeper leagues, I know, but I'm making a run) and Boozer for Camby, and with a bit of luck (the emergence of Brook Lopez, Wilson Chandler and Mario Chalmers as solid fantasy contributors), I began to climb to the top. If Luol Deng was playing for a better coach, and Thaddeus Young realised his potential, I'd be sitting pretty right now.

But something still doesn't seem right. This whole "winning without winning PTS" thing is bothering me. How can I possibly win the league without winning points? Well, if I can't do it this year, I've decided that it's impossible.

Which brings me to my initial idea for the first column, an idea I had earlier in the year when I was sitting in about third spot: do I trade Chris Paul, and if so, who do I trade him for?

Crazy, I know, but it got me thinking. Firstly, the only players I would have traded Paul for in December were LeBron and D-Wade. Fair, right? I thought so. My Pacers byass also considered a package for Danny Granger (based on the fact that he's worth a 7th rounder in our keeper league) and Jose Calderon, but I decided against it.

Now? I'm thinking about blowing my team up at the end of the year if I'm able to win it all. Who would I trade Paul for? At the moment, there are two guys. Wanna take a guess?













Okay, that's enough guessing time. The two players?

LeBron James, and Kevin Durant.

Now half the people reading this column would be thinking "yeah, that's fair", and the other half would have either called an ambulance for me, or clicked to another page. The fact is, statistically, Kevin Durant is as valuable, if not more so, than LeBron James was at the same stage in their careers.

Let's compare their rookie seasons first. For the purpose of this arguement, I'll only use the nine fantasy cats.

LeBron James (2003-4):
41.7% FG
75.4% FT
0.8 3PM
20.9 PPG
5.5 RPG
5.9 APG
1.7 STL
0.7 BLK
3.5 TO

Kevin Durant (2007-8):
43.0% FG
87.3% FT
0.7 3PM
20.3 PPG
4.4 RPG
2.4 APG
1.0 STL
0.9 BLK
2.9 TO

In a Fantasy 1-on-1, LeBron wins 5-4.

Now, their second seasons.

LeBron James (2004-5) - 7.3% increase in playing time
47.2% FG (increase of 13% of previous years result)
75.0% FT (decrease of 0.5%)
1.4 3PM (75% increase)
27.2 PPG (30% increase)
7.4 RPG (35% increase)
7.2 APG (22% increase)
2.2 STL (29% increase)
0.7 BLK (same)
3.3 TO (6% decrease)

Kevin Durant (so far 2008-9) - 14% increase playing time
48.7% FG (13% increase)
86.2% FT (9% decrease)
1.4 3PM (100% increase)
26.0 PPG (28% increase)
6.6 RPG (50% increase)
2.9 APG (21% increase)
1.3 STL (30% increase)
0.8 BLK (20% decrease)
3.2 TO (13% increase)

This time, it's 4-4, with Three Pointers being the tying run. Also notice how similar the increase percentages are - it's almost identical on a couple of the categories, with similar increases in others. I'll then make you aware that Kevin Durant was playing 7% (or 2 minutes, 52 seconds) less than LeBron per game. When you average them per 48 minutes (like coaches tend to do these days), then Durant is leading LeBron in points by 0.8, and in 3PM by 0.116. Therefore, per 48 minutes, Durant is currently leading LeBron in fantasy terms 6 categories to 3. If you want to compare age, right now, Kevin Durant is 20 years, 155 days old. On the same day of the season in 2005, LeBron James was 20 years, 63 days. 92 days separates them, an insignificant amount in reality.

The year after the above statistics, LeBron averaged the following, with similar playing time:
48.0% FG (1.6% in)
73.8% FT (1.6% de)
1.6 3PM (14% in)
31.4 PPG (15% in)
7.0 RPG (5.7% de)
6.6 APG (9.1% de)
1.6 STL (38% de)
0.8 BLK (14% in)
3.3 TO (same)

Now, some of those averages went down, for a couple of reasons:
- LeBron had more of the scoring load due to injuries to Larry Hughes, and the presence of tiprats like Ronald Murray (before he was a decent role player) and Damon Jones.
- The pressure of running a team at 21 that was projected to make the playoffs, and
-a lack of trust in his teammates to score that resulted in him playing more like Michael and less like Magic.

Now, with Kevin Durant around a younger, argulably just as (if not more) talented Thunder outfit, it's looking increasingly likely that he'll not only improve a lot more next season, but that he could challenge LeBron, Kobe and Wade for the scoring title next season? At the moment, if Durant was to play as many minutes, and improve just as much in scoring as LeBron, he'd be averaging 32.1 PPG next season. That's good enough for the scoring title this season... by 3 PPG. So, not only should Kevin Durant maintain his lead over LeBron in FG%, FT%, Blocks and Turnovers, but he should pass LeBron in scoring.

It's also fair to assume that KD's rebounding averages won't drop 5.7% as LeBron's have. Durant has sustained a 50% increase in rebounding this year, and it's hard to see him not posting a similar average next year, as he will see significant playing time at the 3 and perhaps the 4 with the introduction of Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard. In fact, half the increase in rebounding that KD has had this season would result in 8.2 RPG in 2009-10. That average would put him 0.1 RPG below Dirk Nowitski and 0.6 RPG above LeBron James. Yep, that makes the battle 6-2, with 3PM tied.

Oh, and while I'm here, the last player to average 32 PPG and 8 RPG? I had to go back to the GOAT in 1988-89 when he averaged his amazing 32.5 PPG, 8 RPG and 8 APG. Before that? Bob McAdoo in 1975 with 34.5 and 14.1. McAdoo came close again three seasons later, and Moses Malone averaged 31 and 14 in 1981.

LeBron jumped up 14% in his third season in 3PM. Kevin Durant's has doubled, and since the All Star break, he's averaged 1.8 3PM, a huge improvement over last year, but still not near LeBron's 2.3 3PM since the break. If both players sustain this over the next season, KD will still be leading 6-3, but with LeBron dwarfing KD in the cat's that he would lead (steals, 3PM, and the biggest discrepancy, assists).

Now, it would appear in this blog that I'm trying to discredit LeBron. That's not true. I think LeBron has the potential to average a triple double in an entire season, and therefore become the greatest fantasy, and reality, player ever. Thing is, there's a guy that's coming along and may in the coming years also do something that few have done.

So, which player would you choose to base a fantasy team around? Comments are welcome.